![]() ![]() As of Friday, model runs show the odds of dry thunderstorms happening in the Northern California, Bay Area and Central Coast regions are less than 5%. The remnants of this system will also be bringing unstable air into the region, but any virga in the region has a low chance of becoming dry thunderstorms. If any storms develop, they may produce lightning in parts of the Sierra and Bay Area. The moisture moving into the Bay Area and Central Valley will interact with an unstable atmosphere, helping to fan a slight chance for thunderstorms. In the Tahoe area, air quality will be extremely hazardous as AQI levels surpass 300 Friday through Sunday, making it dangerous for even the healthiest people to breathe in. The Bay Area Air District has issued an advisory for Friday to account for haze through the rest of the weekend. This means it will be muggy and hazy in much of the state this weekend. Not only will the Mosquito Fire be fanned by winds from the remnants of this hurricane, but these leftovers will waft smoke to the Sacramento Valley. There’s already been extreme fire activity on this fire, with at least two pyrocumulonimbus clouds having erupted Thursday. This is not good news for firefighters in the Mosquito fire, who may go up against strong isolated gusts, on top of any prevailing winds from Kay, near Tahoe this weekend. This means that despite all the moisture moving in this weekend, a lot of it might end up evaporating in this dry layer before it hits the ground in a process called virga. Unfortunately, the air in the Central Valley and the Bay Area is still running very dry, largely because the heat dome was centered right over Central California for more than a week. Half an inch to an inch of rain looks more favorable along parts of the Sierra. The latest European weather model’s outlook on rain totals is looking low for the Bay Area, with only a few sprinkles expected along the coast and higher mountains. There’s just one catch: Thunderstorms will also be possible. That may not be as high as the PWAT values that will be running 200% to 300% of normal in Southern California, but we will take what we can get. This will raise precipitable water values - which measure how much water vapor there is in the atmosphere - up to 100% of normal in Northern California by Sunday. Kay’s remnant moisture will be hoisted north by southerly winds to help fill the void left behind by this week’s heat dome. Precipitable water values are forecast to run well over 100% and 200% above normal over large parts of Southern California, with some of that moisture making it up into the Sacramento Valley and parts of the Bay Area by Sunday and Monday. So can we expect the Bay Area and Sacramento to tap into some of this remnant tropical moisture? The European, Canadian, and American weather models are all leaning toward yes! Kay is charging up the coast and bringing historic rains to much of Baja California, while Southern California is set to see upward of 1 to 4 inches of rain this weekend, with even higher totals possible along the San Jacinto and San Bernardino ranges. Our neighbors in Southern California are amid a dramatic shift between this week’s statewide heat wave as tropical-storm-force winds whip into the San Diego-Tijuana metro, churning rough waters off the coast of Southern California. Winds are set to steer from the east this weekend thanks to Kay’s remnants. Some good news: Kay’s remnants might bring some rain to Northern California. California fires live updates: Mosquito Fire explodes to 14,250 acres with 100-foot flames.And weather models are hinting that a rare system will fan some of its flames this weekend. That’s thanks to the extremely hot and dry weather from the statewide heat wave earlier this week. This fire, burning in Tahoe National Forest and Placer and El Dorado Counties, has grown dramatically since its ignition. ![]()
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